Determinan Penjualan Kendaraan Listrik dan Implikasinya terhadap Elastisitas Permintaan serta Strategi Penjualan di Indonesia
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Abstract
Pertumbuhan pesat kendaraan listrik (electric vehicles/EV) di Indonesia didorong oleh dukungan pemerintah, kemajuan teknologi, serta meningkatnya kesadaran lingkungan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh harga kendaraan listrik, suku bunga Bank Indonesia (BI Rate), Indeks Kepercayaan Konsumen (Consumer Confidence Index/CCI), inflasi, harga bahan bakar Pertamax, nilai tukar USD/IDR, stasiun pengisian kendaraan listrik umum (SPKLU), serta kegiatan pemasaran berbasis event melalui Indonesia International Motor Show (IIMS) terhadap penjualan kendaraan listrik di Indonesia. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga mengkaji elastisitas permintaan dan elastisitas silang harga antar merek kendaraan listrik sebagai dasar dalam perumusan strategi produksi dan penjualan. Penelitian ini menggunakan data panel bulanan dari sepuluh merek kendaraan listrik yang dipasarkan di Indonesia selama periode Juli 2025 hingga September 2026. Karena keterbatasan ketersediaan data, observasi untuk periode Mei–September 2026 diproyeksikan menggunakan model ARMA dan ARIMA. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan model Random Effect, analisis elastisitas permintaan, serta analisis elastisitas silang harga. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga kendaraan listrik, Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), dan inflasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap penjualan EV. Sebaliknya, harga bahan bakar Pertamax, infrastruktur pengisian daya (SPKLU), dan aktivitas pemasaran melalui IIMS berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, sedangkan BI Rate dan nilai tukar USD/IDR tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap penjualan EV. Analisis elastisitas menunjukkan bahwa penjualan kendaraan listrik relatif sensitif terhadap perubahan harga bahan bakar dan pengembangan infrastruktur pengisian daya.
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